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Tories Open Up A Record Poll Lead

  • Conservatives:    49% (up 2)
  • Labour:               27% (down 1)
  • Lib Dems:            9% (up 1)
  • Ukip:                   6% (down 2)
  • Greens:               3% (down 1)
The Conservatives have opened up a record polling lead according the the latest Guardian/ICM poll. Since last week's poll, the Conservatives have increased their projected vote share by two points to 49%.

According to Martin Boon, ICM’s director, the poll is "remarkable and historic". He says:
"Not only is the lead an outright record for any ICM poll, but the Conservative share is a record in the Guardian/ICM series."
The polling figures are at odds with last week's local elections but it is not the size of a sample that matters but how representative it is. The local elections may have been a large sample of voters but it does not mean they are representative and additionally there is evidence to suggest that how people vote locally is not how they would vote nationally.